The sun had barely pierced the gray of dawn when Baba Ajayi wheeled his rickety cart into Balogun Market. A former schoolteacher turned street vendor, Baba Ajayi had lived through coups, transitions, annulments, and inaugurations. He had seen Nigeria falter, rise, and stumble again. Yet, never before had he feared for her democratic soul as he does today. Not even during the dark days of Abacha did he feel such an eerie stillness in the political air — a stillness that whispers the rise of a new kind of autocracy, dressed in agbada and sweetened with ballots.
Since Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu rose to the presidency, his influence has grown beyond the boundaries of Aso Rock. It creeps into legislative chambers, judiciary benches, media houses, and most crucially, the soul of opposition politics. What began as political genius now teeters on the edge of democratic erosion. A subtle push toward a one-party state is underway — not through decrees or tanks on the streets, but by co-opting opposition, weakening independent institutions, and dangling patronage like ripe mangoes before parched mouths.
The Shadow of Godfatherism
In the streets of Lagos, people still speak of Tinubu with a mixture of reverence and apprehension. His political sagacity is unmatched. From the ashes of military rule, he built a formidable political machinery — first conquering Lagos, then the Southwest, and eventually the presidency. Yet the very brilliance of that machinery now threatens the multi-party ethos Nigeria’s democracy was built on.
We must understand: Tinubu is not just a man; he is an institution. But when one institution swallows all others, democracy suffocates. The merger that birthed the All Progressives Congress (APC) was hailed as a masterstroke — a moment that offered Nigerians a viable alternative. Yet, a decade later, that very APC has become an all-consuming colossus, swallowing not just other parties, but their identities, ideologies, and voices.
The once vibrant Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) now limps like a broken reed, riddled with internal strife and defections — many of which are choreographed from the highest levels of power. The Labour Party, once energizing the youth with hope, is under siege both legally and politically. Others, like the SDP and NNPP, are being bought, bullied, or baited into irrelevance.
From Competition to Co-optation
One does not need to rig an election to undermine democracy. One simply needs to remove the competition. And this, it seems, is where the Tinubu doctrine now finds its deepest roots. Opposition governors are lured into the APC fold with plum appointments and endless federal “collaborations.” Critics are either neutralized with strategic silence or neutered through orchestrated legal battles.
In a country where economic hardship and insecurity have wearied the electorate, many citizens now trade vigilance for survival. And so the seeds of apathy grow — the most fertile ground for authoritarianism in disguise. If we’re not careful, the opposition won’t be silenced by force but by irrelevance.
Echoes of History, Whispers of Tomorrow
Let us not forget. Nigeria once flirted with a one-party reality. In the First Republic, it was the Northern People’s Congress that dominated. In the Second, the NPN. Even the PDP enjoyed an arrogant stretch of near-total control for sixteen years. But democracy is like fire: it burns brightest in diversity. Every time we have tried to concentrate power in one party, the system has cracked under the pressure.
And now, in the Fourth Republic, we stand at yet another dangerous precipice.
If we allow Tinubu — or anyone, for that matter — to consolidate unchecked control under the guise of political stability, we betray the sacrifices of June 12. We betray those who bled in Lekki. We betray the very idea of Nigeria.
What Must Be Done
This is not a call to arms, but to conscience. The media must resist the temptation of patronage. Civil society must refuse the comfort of silence. The judiciary must remember that it is not a parastatal of the presidency. And above all, the youth — the largest demographic — must awaken again, not for hashtags, but for history.
Tinubu is a brilliant strategist. But if his legacy is to endure, it must be that of a democratic builder, not a democratic bulldozer.
A one-party state may look efficient in the short term. But Nigeria is too vast, too complex, too diverse to thrive under one umbrella forever. The winds may seem calm now, but beneath the surface, democracy gasps. Let us not wait until the sky grows dark before we realize we let the storm in.
Democracy dies, not always with gunfire — sometimes, it dies with applause.
Tope Jaji is a Nigerian writer, poet, and public affairs commentator. His work focuses on power, memory, and the fragile architecture of African democracies.
