An old Italian saying warns against putting faith, or money, in any presumed front-runner ahead of the conclave, the closed-door gathering of cardinals that picks the pontiff. It cautions: “He who enters a conclave as a pope, leaves it as a cardinal”.
But here are some cardinals who are being talked about as “papabili” to succeed Pope Francis, whose death at the age of 88 was announced by the Vatican on Monday. They are listed in alphabetical order.
Jean-Marc Aveline, archbishop of Marseille, French, aged 66.
According to the French press, he is known in some domestic Catholic circles as John XXIV, in a nod to his resemblance to Pope John XXIII, the round-faced reforming pope of the early 1960s. Pope Francis once quipped that his successor might take the name of John XXIV.
Aveline is known for his folksy, easy-going nature, his readiness to crack jokes, and his ideological proximity to Francis, especially on immigration and relations with the Muslim world. He is also a serious intellectual, with a doctorate in theology and a degree in philosophy.
He was born in Algeria to a family of Spanish immigrants who moved to France after Algerian independence, and has lived most of his life in Marseille, a port that has been a crossroads of cultures and religions for centuries.
Under Francis, Aveline has made great career strides, becoming bishop in 2013, archbishop in 2019 and a cardinal three years later. His standing was boosted in September 2023 when he organised an international Church conference on Mediterranean issues at which Pope Francis was the star guest.
If he got the top job, Aveline would become the first French pope since the 14th century, a turbulent period in which the papacy moved to Avignon.
He would also be the youngest pope since John Paul II. He understands but does not speak Italian – potentially a major drawback for a job that also carries the title Bishop of Rome and requires a lot of familiarity with Roman power games and intrigues.
Cardinal Peter Erdo, Hungarian, aged 72
If Erdo is elected, he would inevitably be seen as a compromise candidate — someone from the conservative camp who has nonetheless built bridges with Francis’ progressive world.
Erdo was already considered a papal contender in the last conclave in 2013 thanks to his extensive Church contacts in Europe and Africa as well as the fact that he was seen as a pioneer of the New Evangelisation drive to rekindle the Catholic faith in secularized advanced nations — a top priority for many cardinals.
He ranks as a conservative in theology and in speeches throughout Europe he stresses the Christian roots of the continent. However, he is also seen to be pragmatic and never clashed openly with Francis, unlike other tradition-minded clerics.
That said, he raised eyebrows in the Vatican during the 2015 migrant crisis when he went against Pope Francis’ call for churches to take in refugees, saying this would amount to human trafficking — seemingly aligning himself with Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
An expert in Church law, Erdo has been on a fast track his entire career, becoming a bishop in his 40s and a cardinal in 2003 when he was just 51, making him the youngest member of the College of Cardinals until 2010.
He has excellent Italian, and also speaks German, French, Spanish and Russian — which could help him thaw relations between the Catholic and Russian Orthodox Churches after the deep chill of the war in Ukraine.
Erdo is not a charismatic speaker, but while this was once undoubtedly viewed as a serious drawback, it could potentially be seen as an advantage this time around if cardinals want a calm papacy following the fireworks of Francis’ rule.
Cardinal Mario Grech, secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, Maltese, aged 68.
Grech comes from Gozo, a tiny island that is part of Malta, the smallest country in the European Union. But from small beginnings he has gone on to big things, appointed by Pope Francis to be secretary general of the Synod of Bishops — a heavyweight position within the Vatican.
Initially viewed as a conservative, Grech has become a torchbearer of Francis’ reforms within the Church for years, moving sharply with the times.
In 2008, several gay Maltese citizens declared they were leaving the Church in protest at what they saw as the anti-LGBT stance of the then pontiff — Pope Benedict.
Grech offered them little sympathy at the time, but speaking in the Vatican in 2014, he called for the Church to be more accepting of its LGBT members and creative in finding new ways to address contemporary family situations.
The following day, Pope Francis tapped him on the shoulder at breakfast and complimented him for the speech, marking him out for future promotion.
In 2018, Grech spoke about how he relished the challenges faced by the Church. “We are going through a period of change. And to me, this is a very positive thing,” he told the Malta Today newspaper. He warned that it would not remain relevant to modern society if it did not move beyond nostalgia for the past.
His views have won him some high-profile enemies, and conservative Cardinal Gerhard Muller memorably turned on him in 2022, belittling his academic profile and accusing him of going against Catholic doctrine.
Grech’s allies insist he has friends in both the conservative and moderate camps and that, because of his high-profile role, he is known by many cardinals, a clear advantage in a conclave where so many cardinals are relative unknowns to each other.
Coming from a tiny country, his election as pope wouldn’t create any diplomatic or geopolitical headaches.
He has stressed that he always seeks consensus over confrontation. But he has sometimes courted controversy. In 2016 he led a pilgrimage to pray for rain after meeting farmers worried about drought. A local newspaper said it was “a throwback to prehistoric attempts at inducing rain” but a few days after the event, it did indeed start to rain.
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Cardinal Juan Jose Omella, archbishop of Barcelona, Spanish, aged 79.
Omella is a man after Pope Francis’ own heart. Unassuming and good-natured, he lives a humble life despite his lofty title, dedicating his Church career to pastoral care, promoting social justice and embodying a compassionate and inclusive vision of Catholicism.
“We must not see reality only through the eyes of those who have the most, but also through the eyes of the poor,” he told the Crux news site in April 2022, in words reflecting Francis’ world vision.
He was born in 1946 in the village of Cretas in northeastern Spain. After being ordained in 1970 he served as a priest in a number of Spanish parishes and also spent a year as a missionary in Zaire, now called Democratic Republic of Congo.
Underscoring his dedication to social causes, from 1999 to 2015 he worked closely with Spain’s Manos Unidas charity, which tackles famine, disease and poverty in the developing world.
He became a bishop in 1996 and was promoted to archbishop of Barcelona in 2015. Just one year later, Francis gave him a red cardinal’s hat — a move seen as a clear endorsement of Omella’s progressive tendencies, which stand in contrast to more conservative elements that once dominated the Spanish Church.
Omella is a former president of Spain’s bishops’ conference. He had to deal with the fallout from an independent commission that estimated in 2023 that more than 200,000 minors may have been sexually abused by Spanish clergy over a period of decades.
Omella has repeatedly asked for forgiveness for the mismanagement of sexual abuse, but has denied that so many children were abused, with an internal Church investigation identifying just 927 victims since the 1940s.
“At the end of the day, numbers do not get us anywhere. The important thing is the people and to make amends as far as possible,” he said. “Blaming is not the way. The problem does not belong to the Church, it belongs to society as a whole.”
In 2023, Francis invited Omella to join his nine-member kitchen cabinet of cardinals to advise him on questions of governance.
If the conclave decides the Church needs a new approach, then this proximity will count against Omella.
Item 1 of 2 Pope Francis speaks to Marseille’s archbishop Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, at a mass at the Velodrome Stadium, as a part of his journey on the occasion of the Mediterranean Meetings (MED 2023) in Marseille, France, September 23, 2023. Vatican Media/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
[1/2]Pope Francis speaks to Marseille’s archbishop Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, at a mass at the Velodrome Stadium, as a part of his journey on the occasion of the Mediterranean Meetings (MED 2023) in… Purchase Licensing Rights,
VATICAN CITY, April 21 (Reuters) – Predict who the next pope will be at your peril.
An old Italian saying warns against putting faith, or money, in any presumed front-runner ahead of the conclave, the closed-door gathering of cardinals that picks the pontiff. It cautions: “He who enters a conclave as a pope, leaves it as a cardinal”.
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But here are some cardinals who are being talked about as “papabili” to succeed Pope Francis, whose death at the age of 88 was announced by the Vatican on Monday. They are listed in alphabetical order.
Jean-Marc Aveline, archbishop of Marseille, French, aged 66.
According to the French press, he is known in some domestic Catholic circles as John XXIV, in a nod to his resemblance to Pope John XXIII, the round-faced reforming pope of the early 1960s.
Pope Francis once quipped that his successor might take the name of John XXIV.
Aveline is known for his folksy, easy-going nature, his readiness to crack jokes, and his ideological proximity to Francis, especially on immigration and relations with the Muslim world. He is also a serious intellectual, with a doctorate in theology and a degree in philosophy.
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He was born in Algeria to a family of Spanish immigrants who moved to France after Algerian independence, and has lived most of his life in Marseille, a port that has been a crossroads of cultures and religions for centuries.
Under Francis, Aveline has made great career strides, becoming bishop in 2013, archbishop in 2019 and a cardinal three years later. His standing was boosted in September 2023 when he organised an international Church conference on Mediterranean issues at which Pope Francis was the star guest.
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If he got the top job, Aveline would become the first French pope since the 14th century, a turbulent period in which the papacy moved to Avignon.
He would also be the youngest pope since John Paul II. He understands but does not speak Italian – potentially a major drawback for a job that also carries the title Bishop of Rome and requires a lot of familiarity with Roman power games and intrigues.
—–
Cardinal Peter Erdo, Hungarian, aged 72
If Erdo is elected, he would inevitably be seen as a compromise candidate — someone from the conservative camp who has nonetheless built bridges with Francis’ progressive world.
Erdo was already considered a papal contender in the last conclave in 2013 thanks to his extensive Church contacts in Europe and Africa as well as the fact that he was seen as a pioneer of the New Evangelisation drive to rekindle the Catholic faith in secularized advanced nations — a top priority for many cardinals.
He ranks as a conservative in theology and in speeches throughout Europe he stresses the Christian roots of the continent. However, he is also seen to be pragmatic and never clashed openly with Francis, unlike other tradition-minded clerics.
That said, he raised eyebrows in the Vatican during the 2015 migrant crisis when he went against Pope Francis’ call for churches to take in refugees, saying this would amount to human trafficking — seemingly aligning himself with Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
An expert in Church law, Erdo has been on a fast track his entire career, becoming a bishop in his 40s and a cardinal in 2003 when he was just 51, making him the youngest member of the College of Cardinals until 2010.
He has excellent Italian, and also speaks German, French, Spanish and Russian — which could help him thaw relations between the Catholic and Russian Orthodox Churches after the deep chill of the war in Ukraine.
Erdo is not a charismatic speaker, but while this was once undoubtedly viewed as a serious drawback, it could potentially be seen as an advantage this time around if cardinals want a calm papacy following the fireworks of Francis’ rule.
Cardinal Mario Grech, secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, Maltese, aged 68.
Grech comes from Gozo, a tiny island that is part of Malta, the smallest country in the European Union. But from small beginnings he has gone on to big things, appointed by Pope Francis to be secretary general of the Synod of Bishops — a heavyweight position within the Vatican.
